Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the near-certain runoff contenders under current trader consensus. Recent July surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel show Lula at roughly 40% and Flávio near 28%, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits and failing to consolidate opposition support. Lula’s incumbency advantages, coalition-building, and targeted economic measures have widened his edge in head-to-head scenarios, while Flávio maintains a firm base among right-leaning voters despite his father’s legal issues. With undecided voters hovering around 10-11% and no major late shifts reported, the market reflects high implied probabilities for these two advancing on election night.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhich candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
Which candidates will advance to Brazil's presidential runoff?
$450,001 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
87%
Renan Santos
9%
Ronaldo Caiado
3%
Romeu Zema
3%
Michelle Bolsonaro
2%
Jair Bolsonaro
1%
Fernando Haddad
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
1%
$450,001 Обс.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
$206,771 Обс.
96%
Flavio Bolsonaro
$42,904 Обс.
87%
Renan Santos
$5,690 Обс.
9%
Ronaldo Caiado
$486 Обс.
3%
Romeu Zema
$306 Обс.
3%
Michelle Bolsonaro
$33,771 Обс.
2%
Jair Bolsonaro
$14,748 Обс.
1%
Fernando Haddad
$64,405 Обс.
1%
Tarcisio de Frietas
$80,920 Обс.
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the near-certain runoff contenders under current trader consensus. Recent July surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel show Lula at roughly 40% and Flávio near 28%, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits and failing to consolidate opposition support. Lula’s incumbency advantages, coalition-building, and targeted economic measures have widened his edge in head-to-head scenarios, while Flávio maintains a firm base among right-leaning voters despite his father’s legal issues. With undecided voters hovering around 10-11% and no major late shifts reported, the market reflects high implied probabilities for these two advancing on election night.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Ринок відкрито: Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$450,001Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the near-certain runoff contenders under current trader consensus. Recent July surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel show Lula at roughly 40% and Flávio near 28%, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits and failing to consolidate opposition support. Lula’s incumbency advantages, coalition-building, and targeted economic measures have widened his edge in head-to-head scenarios, while Flávio maintains a firm base among right-leaning voters despite his father’s legal issues. With undecided voters hovering around 10-11% and no major late shifts reported, the market reflects high implied probabilities for these two advancing on election night.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Обсяг
$450,001Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Lula da Silva and Flávio Bolsonaro lead polling for Brazil’s October 4, 2026 first-round presidential vote, positioning them as the near-certain runoff contenders under current trader consensus. Recent July surveys from Quaest and AtlasIntel show Lula at roughly 40% and Flávio near 28%, with all other declared candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos—remaining in single digits and failing to consolidate opposition support. Lula’s incumbency advantages, coalition-building, and targeted economic measures have widened his edge in head-to-head scenarios, while Flávio maintains a firm base among right-leaning voters despite his father’s legal issues. With undecided voters hovering around 10-11% and no major late shifts reported, the market reflects high implied probabilities for these two advancing on election night.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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