Traders are assigning an 80.5% implied probability that the next Federal Reserve policy move will be a rate hike, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2% target and recent hawkish signals from the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated core inflation readings, supply-chain disruptions tied to Middle East energy shocks, and solid labor-market conditions have shifted market-implied rate paths higher since the July hold, with futures now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the September 11 CPI release represent the immediate catalysts, as officials have emphasized the need to restore credibility after multiple holds at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate. While base effects and any sharp labor-market softening could still alter the path, current data momentum supports the elevated odds of tightening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHike
82% шанс
$12,889 Обс.
$12,889 Обс.
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
82% шанс
$12,889 Обс.
$12,889 Обс.
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders are assigning an 80.5% implied probability that the next Federal Reserve policy move will be a rate hike, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2% target and recent hawkish signals from the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated core inflation readings, supply-chain disruptions tied to Middle East energy shocks, and solid labor-market conditions have shifted market-implied rate paths higher since the July hold, with futures now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the September 11 CPI release represent the immediate catalysts, as officials have emphasized the need to restore credibility after multiple holds at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate. While base effects and any sharp labor-market softening could still alter the path, current data momentum supports the elevated odds of tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Ринок відкрито: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Обсяг
$12,889Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2028Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmTraders are assigning an 80.5% implied probability that the next Federal Reserve policy move will be a rate hike, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2% target and recent hawkish signals from the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated core inflation readings, supply-chain disruptions tied to Middle East energy shocks, and solid labor-market conditions have shifted market-implied rate paths higher since the July hold, with futures now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the September 11 CPI release represent the immediate catalysts, as officials have emphasized the need to restore credibility after multiple holds at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate. While base effects and any sharp labor-market softening could still alter the path, current data momentum supports the elevated odds of tightening.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Обсяг
$12,889Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2028Ринок відкрито
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Traders are assigning an 80.5% implied probability that the next Federal Reserve policy move will be a rate hike, reflecting persistent inflation above the 2% target and recent hawkish signals from the FOMC under Chair Kevin Warsh. Elevated core inflation readings, supply-chain disruptions tied to Middle East energy shocks, and solid labor-market conditions have shifted market-implied rate paths higher since the July hold, with futures now embedding at least one 25-basis-point increase by year-end. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and the September 11 CPI release represent the immediate catalysts, as officials have emphasized the need to restore credibility after multiple holds at the 3.50%-3.75% funds rate. While base effects and any sharp labor-market softening could still alter the path, current data momentum supports the elevated odds of tightening.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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