**Elevated 2026 transmission activity has positioned the 35–49 range as the leading market-implied outcome at 48.5%.** NYC Health Department data show 31 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases already reported this year alongside a record 1,772 positive mosquito pools across all boroughs, exceeding 2025 totals and recent seasonal averages of roughly 25 cases annually from 2021–2025. Warmer temperatures have accelerated the mosquito life cycle and viral replication within vectors, extending the transmission window from June through October. With the season still active and most infections asymptomatic or unreported until neuroinvasive symptoms prompt testing, traders appear to price in a modest further increase while acknowledging potential variability from control measures or cooler late-season conditions.