US-China tensions over frontier AI development remain the dominant factor behind the 93% market-implied odds against any 2026 pacing agreement. During the late-September Trump-Xi summit, the two sides established an incident-notification channel and scheduled a November dialogue on risks and benefits of advanced models, yet President Trump publicly ruled out slowing US progress or sharing capabilities, citing a sustained American lead of at least one year. No commitments emerged on joint speed limits, capability caps, or coordinated pauses, consistent with ongoing US export controls and Beijing’s parallel push for its own governance frameworks. Traders view the narrow safety-talks outcome as reinforcing rather than reversing competitive dynamics. A breakthrough would require the November round to produce unexpected binding restraints or a major AI safety incident that alters both governments’ incentives before year-end.