Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show a sharply narrower cumulative deficit through mid-2026 compared with the same period in 2025, driven by the unwind of 2025 front-loading ahead of expanded Section 301 tariffs and shifts in sourcing away from China. Monthly readings remain volatile, with the July 2026 gap widening to $88.6 billion amid higher imports of capital goods tied to AI infrastructure and lower exports, though services surpluses provide an offset. Year-to-date figures through July reflect roughly 30 percent improvement versus 2025, supported by energy and commodity export strength earlier in the year. Traders appear to price the full-year total in the $700–900 billion range as the dominant outcome, balancing durable AI import demand against tariff-driven import compression and potential further export gains. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the recent monthly rebound persists into year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$24,111 Обс.
$24,111 Обс.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
4%
500–600B
6%
600–700B
10%
700–800B
41%
800–900B
31%
900B–1T
14%
1T–1.1T
5%
1.1T+
4%
$24,111 Обс.
$24,111 Обс.
Feb 27, 2027
<500B
$16,854 Обс.
4%
500–600B
$454 Обс.
6%
600–700B
$543 Обс.
10%
700–800B
$675 Обс.
41%
800–900B
$1,529 Обс.
31%
900B–1T
$1,469 Обс.
14%
1T–1.1T
$1,468 Обс.
5%
1.1T+
$1,119 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show a sharply narrower cumulative deficit through mid-2026 compared with the same period in 2025, driven by the unwind of 2025 front-loading ahead of expanded Section 301 tariffs and shifts in sourcing away from China. Monthly readings remain volatile, with the July 2026 gap widening to $88.6 billion amid higher imports of capital goods tied to AI infrastructure and lower exports, though services surpluses provide an offset. Year-to-date figures through July reflect roughly 30 percent improvement versus 2025, supported by energy and commodity export strength earlier in the year. Traders appear to price the full-year total in the $700–900 billion range as the dominant outcome, balancing durable AI import demand against tariff-driven import compression and potential further export gains. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the recent monthly rebound persists into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Обсяг
$24,111Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show a sharply narrower cumulative deficit through mid-2026 compared with the same period in 2025, driven by the unwind of 2025 front-loading ahead of expanded Section 301 tariffs and shifts in sourcing away from China. Monthly readings remain volatile, with the July 2026 gap widening to $88.6 billion amid higher imports of capital goods tied to AI infrastructure and lower exports, though services surpluses provide an offset. Year-to-date figures through July reflect roughly 30 percent improvement versus 2025, supported by energy and commodity export strength earlier in the year. Traders appear to price the full-year total in the $700–900 billion range as the dominant outcome, balancing durable AI import demand against tariff-driven import compression and potential further export gains. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the recent monthly rebound persists into year-end.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Обсяг
$24,111Дата завершення
Feb 28, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent U.S. goods and services trade data show a sharply narrower cumulative deficit through mid-2026 compared with the same period in 2025, driven by the unwind of 2025 front-loading ahead of expanded Section 301 tariffs and shifts in sourcing away from China. Monthly readings remain volatile, with the July 2026 gap widening to $88.6 billion amid higher imports of capital goods tied to AI infrastructure and lower exports, though services surpluses provide an offset. Year-to-date figures through July reflect roughly 30 percent improvement versus 2025, supported by energy and commodity export strength earlier in the year. Traders appear to price the full-year total in the $700–900 billion range as the dominant outcome, balancing durable AI import demand against tariff-driven import compression and potential further export gains. Key upcoming releases will clarify whether the recent monthly rebound persists into year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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