Stronger-than-expected August 2026 jobs data, with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside Q2 GDP expansion near 1.5% annualized, have anchored trader consensus behind the 68.5% market-implied odds against a US recession by end-2027. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and a stable labor market continue to support moderate growth forecasts around 2.1% for both 2026 and 2027, while New York Fed recession models sit near 15% and composite indicators remain well below historical triggers. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50-3.75% policy rate amid mixed inflation readings near 3.3-3.7% year-over-year further reduces near-term downside risks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and September CPI release, which could shift probabilities if labor or price trends deviate materially.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено32% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2027
32% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productStronger-than-expected August 2026 jobs data, with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside Q2 GDP expansion near 1.5% annualized, have anchored trader consensus behind the 68.5% market-implied odds against a US recession by end-2027. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and a stable labor market continue to support moderate growth forecasts around 2.1% for both 2026 and 2027, while New York Fed recession models sit near 15% and composite indicators remain well below historical triggers. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50-3.75% policy rate amid mixed inflation readings near 3.3-3.7% year-over-year further reduces near-term downside risks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and September CPI release, which could shift probabilities if labor or price trends deviate materially.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Ринок відкрито: Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,784Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productStronger-than-expected August 2026 jobs data, with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside Q2 GDP expansion near 1.5% annualized, have anchored trader consensus behind the 68.5% market-implied odds against a US recession by end-2027. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and a stable labor market continue to support moderate growth forecasts around 2.1% for both 2026 and 2027, while New York Fed recession models sit near 15% and composite indicators remain well below historical triggers. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50-3.75% policy rate amid mixed inflation readings near 3.3-3.7% year-over-year further reduces near-term downside risks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and September CPI release, which could shift probabilities if labor or price trends deviate materially.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2027 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025, 2026, or 2027, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2027.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2027 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2027 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2027 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Обсяг
$7,784Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 7, 2026, 3:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Stronger-than-expected August 2026 jobs data, with 162,000 nonfarm payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside Q2 GDP expansion near 1.5% annualized, have anchored trader consensus behind the 68.5% market-implied odds against a US recession by end-2027. Resilient consumer spending, AI-driven investment, and a stable labor market continue to support moderate growth forecasts around 2.1% for both 2026 and 2027, while New York Fed recession models sit near 15% and composite indicators remain well below historical triggers. The Federal Reserve’s steady 3.50-3.75% policy rate amid mixed inflation readings near 3.3-3.7% year-over-year further reduces near-term downside risks. Key upcoming catalysts include the September FOMC meeting and September CPI release, which could shift probabilities if labor or price trends deviate materially.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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