**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.** Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 22%
0.6–0.7% 5.8%
$19,102 Обс.
$19,102 Обс.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
6%
0.0–0.1%
22%
0.2–0.3%
42%
0.4–0.5%
26%
0.6–0.7%
6%
0.8–0.9%
<1%
1.0%+
2%
0.2–0.3% 42%
0.4–0.5% 26%
0.0–0.1% 22%
0.6–0.7% 5.8%
$19,102 Обс.
$19,102 Обс.
Nov 11, 2026
Negative
$4,029 Обс.
6%
0.0–0.1%
$5,965 Обс.
22%
0.2–0.3%
$6,709 Обс.
42%
0.4–0.5%
$1,691 Обс.
26%
0.6–0.7%
$270 Обс.
6%
0.8–0.9%
$201 Обс.
<1%
1.0%+
$237 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.**
Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ET
Обсяг
$19,102Дата завершення
Nov 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.**
Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q3 of 2026 compared with the most recent quarter (quarter-on-previous-quarter) in the "GDP first quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for November 12, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 1.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Обсяг
$19,102Дата завершення
Nov 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 1:43 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Higher energy prices stemming from the Middle East conflict and associated uncertainty represent the dominant factor shaping trader sentiment around UK Q3 2026 GDP growth.** Q2 output expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter after 0.6% in Q1, with services providing the main support while production stagnated. The Bank of England’s September-updated projections point to underlying growth near 0% in Q3 as the energy shock erodes real incomes and dampens household spending, consistent with the 41.5% market-implied probability on the 0.2–0.3% band. Broader 2026 forecasts from the IMF and independent panels center near 1.0–1.1% annual growth, reflecting tighter financial conditions and a widening output gap. Recent monthly indicators through July showed steady but modest three-month growth of 0.4%, while the unemployment rate held at 4.9% amid softening hiring intentions. Key near-term catalysts include the next round of PMI releases, retail sales data, and the October CPI print, which will influence revisions to the Q3 estimate due in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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