Trader consensus in the TX-33 Democratic primary runoff market heavily favors former U.S. Rep. Colin Allred at 76% implied probability over incumbent Rep. Julie Johnson entering the May 26 contest, reflecting Allred's dominant first-round performance on March 3 where he captured 45.5% of the vote to Johnson's 34%, absorbing support from eliminated challengers Carlos Quintanilla (12.1%) and Zeeshan Hafeez (8.4%). Recent April fundraising disclosures show Allred outraising Johnson, bolstering his campaign amid the redrawn Dallas-area district's competitive dynamics. A December internal poll had Allred ahead 58-30, aligning with trader sentiment despite low barriers for shifts from early voting turnout or endorsements.