The US State Department explicitly rejected Taliban overtures for American investment in Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion mineral sector, including lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earths, shortly after Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s late-August 2026 public pitch for mining deals in exchange for sanctions relief and access to frozen assets. Washington cited concerns over funding the sanctioned regime and its human rights record, maintaining non-recognition and existing restrictions. The Trump administration has instead advanced critical minerals partnerships with partners such as Armenia and Pakistan while pursuing separate regional interests. These confirmed policy barriers and absence of any bilateral agreement support trader consensus that a signed mineral deal remains unlikely by year-end.