The market-implied odds reflect the extended timeline required for congressional authorization, funding, site selection, facility development, faculty recruitment, and student enrollment before any formal instruction can begin. An executive order in late August 2026 established a Presidential Commission chaired by NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman, which held its first meeting in September and issued a Request for Information for potential host states due in late October. Official plans target groundbreaking no later than 2027, temporary facilities for an initial class in 2028, and permanent operations by 2031. These milestones align with historical precedents for new federal academies and underscore the limited runway to actual training by the June 2027 resolution date.