Trump’s refusal to sign the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act drove the 100% market-implied probability of “No.” After Congress passed the bipartisan measure with large majorities, the president explicitly withheld his signature in protest over stalled progress on the SAVE America Act voter-ID legislation. Under Article I of the Constitution, the bill became law automatically on July 11, 2026, once the 10-day window expired without action or veto. With July now concluded and no signature issued, traders assign near-certain odds to the negative outcome. The only plausible tail risk would involve an unforeseen legal maneuver or reinterpretation of the term “signs,” though neither has materialized.