Tristan Buckmaster’s September 2026 public dispute with OpenAI over an AI-assisted Navier-Stokes proof remains the central driver of trader views on any lawsuit. Buckmaster and collaborator Levent Alpöge allege that their unpublished work on related Euler and fluid equations, uploaded to OpenAI’s Codex coding assistant, informed the company’s rapid internal progress after their names became known, with disputed calls over authorship credit and career pressure. OpenAI categorically denies any influence from those Codex prompts, citing an internal review that found no data leakage into training or model outputs, and notes differences between the proofs. As of mid-October 2026, Buckmaster has warned researchers against sharing original ideas with the platform but has filed no suit, focusing instead on publishing his results. Low implied probability reflects the absence of concrete evidence of data misuse and the high bar for an academic IP claim against a major lab. Key swing factors include emerging verification details on either proof, shifts in AI training transparency rules, or new reporting on Codex data practices.