Professora Dorinha leads the Tocantins gubernatorial runoff market at 60% implied probability after securing 45.52% of valid votes in the October 4 first round, narrowly ahead of Vicentinho Júnior at 43.94%. The tight first-round margin and absence of a majority triggered the October 25 second round, the state's third such contest. Pre-election surveys from Quaest, Paraná Pesquisas, and Real Time Big Data consistently placed Dorinha ahead or in a statistical tie with Vicentinho, with other candidates such as Laurez Moreira trailing far behind. Traders appear to price in Dorinha's edge from recent polling momentum, her broader legislative alliances, and the historical pattern in Tocantins where the first-round leader has prevailed in the runoff. Vicentinho's 38% reflects his competitive showing and ongoing efforts to consolidate opposition support ahead of the decisive vote.