Traders view the third-best AI agent lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with "Other" and multiple unnamed companies each carrying roughly 50% implied probability while Moonshot sits near 49.5%. This pricing captures a fragmented field where no single lab has pulled ahead on agent benchmarks involving tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion. Lower odds for OpenAI at 9.5%, Google at 6.6%, and Anthropic at 5.5% reflect competitive gains by specialized labs in developer adoption and demonstrated capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, benchmark results, and platform integrations that could consolidate or further disperse market-implied odds before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоThird-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
Third-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
Moonshot 50%
SpaceXAI 10.6%
Alibaba 10%
OpenAI 10%
$16,172 Обс.
$16,172 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
50%
SpaceXAI
10%
Alibaba
10%
OpenAI
10%
Z.ai
9%
7%
Anthropic
6%
Xiaomi
5%
DeepSeek
4%
Microsoft
4%
ByteDance
1%
Meta
1%
MiniMax
1%
Nvidia
1%
Baidu
1%
Amazon
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Moonshot 50%
SpaceXAI 10.6%
Alibaba 10%
OpenAI 10%
$16,172 Обс.
$16,172 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
Moonshot
$6,063 Обс.
50%
SpaceXAI
$612 Обс.
10%
Alibaba
$530 Обс.
10%
OpenAI
$4,377 Обс.
10%
Z.ai
$442 Обс.
9%
$295 Обс.
7%
Anthropic
$1,017 Обс.
6%
Xiaomi
$262 Обс.
5%
DeepSeek
$337 Обс.
4%
Microsoft
$252 Обс.
4%
ByteDance
$473 Обс.
1%
Meta
$229 Обс.
1%
MiniMax
$224 Обс.
1%
Nvidia
$184 Обс.
1%
Baidu
$224 Обс.
1%
Amazon
$201 Обс.
1%
Mistral
$229 Обс.
1%
Meituan
$224 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the third-best AI agent lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with "Other" and multiple unnamed companies each carrying roughly 50% implied probability while Moonshot sits near 49.5%. This pricing captures a fragmented field where no single lab has pulled ahead on agent benchmarks involving tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion. Lower odds for OpenAI at 9.5%, Google at 6.6%, and Anthropic at 5.5% reflect competitive gains by specialized labs in developer adoption and demonstrated capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, benchmark results, and platform integrations that could consolidate or further disperse market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$16,172Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders view the third-best AI agent lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with "Other" and multiple unnamed companies each carrying roughly 50% implied probability while Moonshot sits near 49.5%. This pricing captures a fragmented field where no single lab has pulled ahead on agent benchmarks involving tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion. Lower odds for OpenAI at 9.5%, Google at 6.6%, and Anthropic at 5.5% reflect competitive gains by specialized labs in developer adoption and demonstrated capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, benchmark results, and platform integrations that could consolidate or further disperse market-implied odds before resolution.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$16,172Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 5:10 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the third-best AI agent lab by end of October as highly uncertain, with "Other" and multiple unnamed companies each carrying roughly 50% implied probability while Moonshot sits near 49.5%. This pricing captures a fragmented field where no single lab has pulled ahead on agent benchmarks involving tool use, multi-step reasoning, and real-world task completion. Lower odds for OpenAI at 9.5%, Google at 6.6%, and Anthropic at 5.5% reflect competitive gains by specialized labs in developer adoption and demonstrated capabilities. Key swing factors include upcoming model releases, benchmark results, and platform integrations that could consolidate or further disperse market-implied odds before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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