Mayes Middleton holds a clear edge in the Texas attorney general race as the Republican nominee following his May 2026 primary runoff victory over Chip Roy, positioning him to succeed Ken Paxton in a state where Republicans have maintained long-term control of the office. Recent polling averages place Middleton ahead by roughly five points, with support near 46 percent against Democrat Nathan Johnson's 43 percent, though significant undecided voters remain ahead of early voting that begins October 19. Johnson's October launch of a seven-figure ad campaign emphasizes restoring public trust and prioritizing the rule of law. Libertarian Tom Oxford and other minor candidates draw limited support in surveys. Traders' consensus reflects Texas's partisan baseline and Middleton's substantial self-funding, tempered by the race's relative closeness compared to historical results.