Recent polling ahead of Spain’s November 29 snap election shows the PP and Vox projected to secure 198–205 seats in the 350-seat Congress, comfortably above the 176-seat threshold for an absolute majority. This stems from sharp declines in PSOE support amid housing policy setbacks and parliamentary defeats that prompted Prime Minister Sánchez to call the vote early. Vox has doubled its projected seats from 33 in 2023 while the PP holds steady as the largest party, producing consistent right-wing bloc leads across surveys. Traders price the PP+Vox majority outcome at 72.5% implied probability, reflecting these seat projections and limited upside for left-wing or regional alliances to block an investiture.