Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, saw its public equity book liquidated in late July 2026 after a sharp AI stock rout triggered margin calls and roughly 67% losses that month, forcing a discounted sale of leveraged positions to Citadel. The firm retained its private portfolio, including a multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake, reduced assets to around $10 billion, eliminated leverage, and vowed to continue operating without borrowing. As of early August, it made fresh private investments such as $400 million into chip startup Source Foundry, signaling ongoing activity rather than closure. With lock-up periods for some investors ending in September and an expected Anthropic IPO as a potential catalyst, trader consensus reflects low implied probability of a full wind-down announcement by year-end, though concentrated private holdings introduce valuation uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
Situational Awareness announces fund wind-down by...?
$147,803 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
7%
$147,803 Обс.
December 31
$81,632 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, saw its public equity book liquidated in late July 2026 after a sharp AI stock rout triggered margin calls and roughly 67% losses that month, forcing a discounted sale of leveraged positions to Citadel. The firm retained its private portfolio, including a multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake, reduced assets to around $10 billion, eliminated leverage, and vowed to continue operating without borrowing. As of early August, it made fresh private investments such as $400 million into chip startup Source Foundry, signaling ongoing activity rather than closure. With lock-up periods for some investors ending in September and an expected Anthropic IPO as a potential catalyst, trader consensus reflects low implied probability of a full wind-down announcement by year-end, though concentrated private holdings introduce valuation uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ET
Обсяг
$147,803Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, saw its public equity book liquidated in late July 2026 after a sharp AI stock rout triggered margin calls and roughly 67% losses that month, forcing a discounted sale of leveraged positions to Citadel. The firm retained its private portfolio, including a multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake, reduced assets to around $10 billion, eliminated leverage, and vowed to continue operating without borrowing. As of early August, it made fresh private investments such as $400 million into chip startup Source Foundry, signaling ongoing activity rather than closure. With lock-up periods for some investors ending in September and an expected Anthropic IPO as a potential catalyst, trader consensus reflects low implied probability of a full wind-down announcement by year-end, though concentrated private holdings introduce valuation uncertainty.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Situational Awareness announces that it will cease operations, that Situational Awareness LP will be wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP will be returned, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A conversion to a family office or proprietary vehicle, or a distribution of assets in kind to investors, will qualify if all outside investor capital is returned or announced to be returned. A transition of all assets to a liquidating trust or special purpose vehicle will qualify if that vehicle is announced to accept no new outside capital.
A consensus of credible reporting that Situational Awareness has ceased operations, that Situational Awareness LP has been wound down, or that all outside investor capital in Situational Awareness LP has been returned, will also qualify to resolve this market to "Yes".
The following will not qualify: closing the fund to new investors; redemption gates or suspensions; redemptions made under existing lockup terms; the liquidation of positions, a strategy, or a portfolio without a wind-down of the fund; partial redemptions; or a renamed, successor, continuation, or rollover vehicle that continues to accept outside capital.
Once a qualifying announcement occurs, a subsequent decision to continue operations will not change the resolution of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Situational Awareness, including any withdrawal of investment adviser registration filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$147,803Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 4:00 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Situational Awareness, the AI-focused hedge fund launched by former OpenAI researcher Leopold Aschenbrenner, saw its public equity book liquidated in late July 2026 after a sharp AI stock rout triggered margin calls and roughly 67% losses that month, forcing a discounted sale of leveraged positions to Citadel. The firm retained its private portfolio, including a multibillion-dollar Anthropic stake, reduced assets to around $10 billion, eliminated leverage, and vowed to continue operating without borrowing. As of early August, it made fresh private investments such as $400 million into chip startup Source Foundry, signaling ongoing activity rather than closure. With lock-up periods for some investors ending in September and an expected Anthropic IPO as a potential catalyst, trader consensus reflects low implied probability of a full wind-down announcement by year-end, though concentrated private holdings introduce valuation uncertainty.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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