Trader consensus has locked in at 98.1% implied probability for "No" on the Services Down Parlay, as the March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without all required conditions met: an AWS service disruption at "disrupted" severity on the Health Dashboard, a Discord critical (red) incident on discordstatus.com, and a resolved Cloudflare critical (red) incident on cloudflarestatus.com. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East zones (ME-CENTRAL-1, ME-SOUTH-1) from conflict-related physical damage starting March 1, no critical Discord or Cloudflare events materialized during the window, per official histories. This skin-in-the-game assessment underscores the rarity of synchronized major cloud outages. Realistic tail risks include resolution delays from retroactive severity reclassifications or reporting disputes, though highly unlikely over a month post-deadline, with no fresh catalysts evident.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоServices Down Parlay
Services Down Parlay
$14,299 Обс.
$14,299 Обс.
Mar 31, 2026
$14,299 Обс.
$14,299 Обс.
Mar 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus has locked in at 98.1% implied probability for "No" on the Services Down Parlay, as the March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without all required conditions met: an AWS service disruption at "disrupted" severity on the Health Dashboard, a Discord critical (red) incident on discordstatus.com, and a resolved Cloudflare critical (red) incident on cloudflarestatus.com. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East zones (ME-CENTRAL-1, ME-SOUTH-1) from conflict-related physical damage starting March 1, no critical Discord or Cloudflare events materialized during the window, per official histories. This skin-in-the-game assessment underscores the rarity of synchronized major cloud outages. Realistic tail risks include resolution delays from retroactive severity reclassifications or reporting disputes, though highly unlikely over a month post-deadline, with no fresh catalysts evident.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Ринок відкрито: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
Обсяг
$14,299Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus has locked in at 98.1% implied probability for "No" on the Services Down Parlay, as the March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without all required conditions met: an AWS service disruption at "disrupted" severity on the Health Dashboard, a Discord critical (red) incident on discordstatus.com, and a resolved Cloudflare critical (red) incident on cloudflarestatus.com. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East zones (ME-CENTRAL-1, ME-SOUTH-1) from conflict-related physical damage starting March 1, no critical Discord or Cloudflare events materialized during the window, per official histories. This skin-in-the-game assessment underscores the rarity of synchronized major cloud outages. Realistic tail risks include resolution delays from retroactive severity reclassifications or reporting disputes, though highly unlikely over a month post-deadline, with no fresh catalysts evident.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
Обсяг
$14,299Дата завершення
Mar 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus has locked in at 98.1% implied probability for "No" on the Services Down Parlay, as the March 31, 2026, deadline elapsed without all required conditions met: an AWS service disruption at "disrupted" severity on the Health Dashboard, a Discord critical (red) incident on discordstatus.com, and a resolved Cloudflare critical (red) incident on cloudflarestatus.com. While AWS logged qualifying regional disruptions in Middle East zones (ME-CENTRAL-1, ME-SOUTH-1) from conflict-related physical damage starting March 1, no critical Discord or Cloudflare events materialized during the window, per official histories. This skin-in-the-game assessment underscores the rarity of synchronized major cloud outages. Realistic tail risks include resolution delays from retroactive severity reclassifications or reporting disputes, though highly unlikely over a month post-deadline, with no fresh catalysts evident.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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