Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI lab by end of October, with Google holding a narrow 48% implied probability amid intense competition from Anthropic, Meta, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have kept capabilities clustered, while differing approaches to scaling, safety alignment, and enterprise integration create swing factors. Leadership statements on training compute, multimodal performance, and regulatory positioning could shift sentiment quickly, as could any surprise partnership or hardware integration news before the resolution window closes. The market reflects real-money assessment of which lab can most credibly close the gap behind the frontrunner through verifiable technical progress rather than marketing claims.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSecond-best AI Lab end of October?
Second-best AI Lab end of October?
Google 48%
Anthropic 22%
Meta 16%
OpenAI 9.4%
$19,221 Обс.
$19,221 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
48%
Anthropic
22%
Meta
16%
OpenAI
10%
SpaceXAI
5%
Alibaba
3%
Z.ai
2%
Thinky
2%
Moonshot
1%
Baidu
1%
DeepSeek
1%
Nvidia
1%
Microsoft
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Amazon
1%
ByteDance
1%
Mistral
1%
Meituan
1%
Tencent
1%
StepFun
1%
MiniMax
<1%
Google 48%
Anthropic 22%
Meta 16%
OpenAI 9.4%
$19,221 Обс.
$19,221 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
$8,616 Обс.
48%
Anthropic
$1,837 Обс.
22%
Meta
$971 Обс.
16%
OpenAI
$526 Обс.
10%
SpaceXAI
$311 Обс.
5%
Alibaba
$772 Обс.
3%
Z.ai
$478 Обс.
2%
Thinky
$705 Обс.
2%
Moonshot
$382 Обс.
1%
Baidu
$463 Обс.
1%
DeepSeek
$551 Обс.
1%
Nvidia
$304 Обс.
1%
Microsoft
$466 Обс.
1%
Xiaomi
$380 Обс.
1%
Amazon
$341 Обс.
1%
ByteDance
$372 Обс.
1%
Mistral
$333 Обс.
1%
Meituan
$295 Обс.
1%
Tencent
$345 Обс.
1%
StepFun
$304 Обс.
1%
MiniMax
$472 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI lab by end of October, with Google holding a narrow 48% implied probability amid intense competition from Anthropic, Meta, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have kept capabilities clustered, while differing approaches to scaling, safety alignment, and enterprise integration create swing factors. Leadership statements on training compute, multimodal performance, and regulatory positioning could shift sentiment quickly, as could any surprise partnership or hardware integration news before the resolution window closes. The market reflects real-money assessment of which lab can most credibly close the gap behind the frontrunner through verifiable technical progress rather than marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ET
Обсяг
$19,221Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI lab by end of October, with Google holding a narrow 48% implied probability amid intense competition from Anthropic, Meta, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have kept capabilities clustered, while differing approaches to scaling, safety alignment, and enterprise integration create swing factors. Leadership statements on training compute, multimodal performance, and regulatory positioning could shift sentiment quickly, as could any surprise partnership or hardware integration news before the resolution window closes. The market reflects real-money assessment of which lab can most credibly close the gap behind the frontrunner through verifiable technical progress rather than marketing claims.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$19,221Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 8:02 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Traders see a tightly contested race for second-best AI lab by end of October, with Google holding a narrow 48% implied probability amid intense competition from Anthropic, Meta, and others. Recent model releases and benchmark results have kept capabilities clustered, while differing approaches to scaling, safety alignment, and enterprise integration create swing factors. Leadership statements on training compute, multimodal performance, and regulatory positioning could shift sentiment quickly, as could any surprise partnership or hardware integration news before the resolution window closes. The market reflects real-money assessment of which lab can most credibly close the gap behind the frontrunner through verifiable technical progress rather than marketing claims.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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