OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch and leading agentic benchmark scores—such as 92/100 across Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp—anchor trader consensus at a 65% implied probability it finishes as the second-strongest AI agent lab by end-October. Its models demonstrate superior multi-step tool use, computer control, and orchestration, reinforced by ecosystem integrations like ChatGPT Work and Codex. Anthropic trails at 20.5% on the strength of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 agent performance plus safety-focused releases like its Model Hardware Standard, though recent multi-agent “turf war” tests and lower scores on certain live-web evals cap its upside. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 series post competitive open-weight agent results at single-digit odds, but lag in verified frontier deployment and real-world reliability. With October resolution near, fresh model updates or leaderboard shifts from Arena.ai or BenchLM could still alter the tight gap behind OpenAI.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
Second-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
OpenAI 65%
Anthropic 21%
Moonshot 6%
DeepSeek 4.0%
$32,722 Обс.
$32,722 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
65%
Anthropic
21%
Moonshot
6%
DeepSeek
4%
SpaceXAI
4%
3%
ByteDance
2%
Amazon
1%
Meituan
1%
MiniMax
1%
Z.ai
1%
Baidu
1%
Alibaba
<1%
Meta
<1%
Xiaomi
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
Mistral
<1%
Microsoft
<1%
OpenAI 65%
Anthropic 21%
Moonshot 6%
DeepSeek 4.0%
$32,722 Обс.
$32,722 Обс.
Oct 31, 2026
OpenAI
$12,073 Обс.
65%
Anthropic
$4,165 Обс.
21%
Moonshot
$7,637 Обс.
6%
DeepSeek
$586 Обс.
4%
SpaceXAI
$673 Обс.
4%
$1,495 Обс.
3%
ByteDance
$521 Обс.
2%
Amazon
$567 Обс.
1%
Meituan
$491 Обс.
1%
MiniMax
$594 Обс.
1%
Z.ai
$523 Обс.
1%
Baidu
$559 Обс.
1%
Alibaba
$517 Обс.
<1%
Meta
$477 Обс.
<1%
Xiaomi
$423 Обс.
<1%
Nvidia
$526 Обс.
<1%
Mistral
$494 Обс.
<1%
Microsoft
$400 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch and leading agentic benchmark scores—such as 92/100 across Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp—anchor trader consensus at a 65% implied probability it finishes as the second-strongest AI agent lab by end-October. Its models demonstrate superior multi-step tool use, computer control, and orchestration, reinforced by ecosystem integrations like ChatGPT Work and Codex. Anthropic trails at 20.5% on the strength of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 agent performance plus safety-focused releases like its Model Hardware Standard, though recent multi-agent “turf war” tests and lower scores on certain live-web evals cap its upside. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 series post competitive open-weight agent results at single-digit odds, but lag in verified frontier deployment and real-world reliability. With October resolution near, fresh model updates or leaderboard shifts from Arena.ai or BenchLM could still alter the tight gap behind OpenAI.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$32,722Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch and leading agentic benchmark scores—such as 92/100 across Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp—anchor trader consensus at a 65% implied probability it finishes as the second-strongest AI agent lab by end-October. Its models demonstrate superior multi-step tool use, computer control, and orchestration, reinforced by ecosystem integrations like ChatGPT Work and Codex. Anthropic trails at 20.5% on the strength of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 agent performance plus safety-focused releases like its Model Hardware Standard, though recent multi-agent “turf war” tests and lower scores on certain live-web evals cap its upside. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 series post competitive open-weight agent results at single-digit odds, but lag in verified frontier deployment and real-world reliability. With October resolution near, fresh model updates or leaderboard shifts from Arena.ai or BenchLM could still alter the tight gap behind OpenAI.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard when the table under "Agent Arena" filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Agent Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/agent filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Agent Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Обсяг
$32,722Дата завершення
Nov 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 4:29 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s recent GPT-6 Astra launch and leading agentic benchmark scores—such as 92/100 across Terminal-Bench, OSWorld, and BrowseComp—anchor trader consensus at a 65% implied probability it finishes as the second-strongest AI agent lab by end-October. Its models demonstrate superior multi-step tool use, computer control, and orchestration, reinforced by ecosystem integrations like ChatGPT Work and Codex. Anthropic trails at 20.5% on the strength of Claude Fable 5.1 and Opus 5 agent performance plus safety-focused releases like its Model Hardware Standard, though recent multi-agent “turf war” tests and lower scores on certain live-web evals cap its upside. Chinese labs including Moonshot’s Kimi K3 and DeepSeek’s V4 series post competitive open-weight agent results at single-digit odds, but lag in verified frontier deployment and real-world reliability. With October resolution near, fresh model updates or leaderboard shifts from Arena.ai or BenchLM could still alter the tight gap behind OpenAI.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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