Saudi Arabia has provided extensive air support, including over 100 jets, to Yemeni government forces launching the October 5 “Yemen Dawn” counteroffensive aimed at reversing Houthi gains along the Red Sea coast and Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Government statements have referenced longer-term goals of restoring control over Sanaa, yet operations remain concentrated on coastal districts with Yemeni ground units leading advances while Saudi forces conduct strikes on Houthi targets, including areas in the capital itself. The Houthis retain firm control of Sanaa and northern strongholds, sustaining cross-border missile and drone strikes on Saudi territory. Regular Saudi armed forces have not conducted ground operations inside the Sanaa capital district amid this escalation, consistent with the market’s low implied probabilities for entry by late 2026 or early 2027.