André do Prado secured the second-highest vote total in São Paulo’s October 4 Senate election, with official tallies placing him at 29.28% behind Guilherme Derrite’s 30.59%. This outcome reflects sustained backing from Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and Flávio Bolsonaro, which consolidated right-leaning support in the state’s largest electorate and enabled the PL candidate to edge out former ministers Simone Tebet and Marina Silva, who finished third and fourth. Traders assign 100% probability to Prado finishing second because the certified results show a clear margin over all other contenders. Late-stage legal challenges, vote-count disputes, or Tribunal Superior Eleitoral corrections remain the only realistic paths to alter the ranking, though the scale of the lead makes such shifts improbable.