Rafael Fonteles secured re-election as Piauí governor on October 4, 2026, in the first round with approximately 70.9% of valid votes, far ahead of Joel Rodrigues at around 27.5%. Traders priced this outcome at near-certainty due to consistent polling leads of 64–74% in the campaign’s final weeks, backed by 65–70% approval ratings for his first-term management. Fonteles benefited from incumbency, a broad coalition including PT, Republicanos, PDT, MDB, PSD and allied parties, and continuity from his 2022 first-round victory. Late-campaign surveys from Datafolha, AtlasIntel and regional institutes confirmed the margin. While the result aligned with pre-election data, any late shift in turnout or unexpected legal developments could have altered the final tally before certification.