Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоRaquel Lyra 69%
João Campos 30%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$26,280 Обс.
$26,280 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Raquel Lyra
69%
João Campos
30%
Ivan Moraes
1%
Raquel Lyra 69%
João Campos 30%
Ivan Moraes <1%
$26,280 Обс.
$26,280 Обс.
Oct 4, 2026
Raquel Lyra
$11,824 Обс.
69%
João Campos
$12,304 Обс.
30%
Ivan Moraes
$2,151 Обс.
1%
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Ринок відкрито: Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,280Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Обсяг
$26,280Дата завершення
Oct 4, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Incumbent Raquel Lyra (PSD) leads trader assessments for the Pernambuco governorship at 69.5% implied probability, ahead of main challenger João Campos (PSB) at 29.5%, with Ivan Moraes and others at negligible levels. Recent Datafolha and Quaest surveys through early August show Lyra holding narrow first-round edges or statistical ties (around 43-48% versus Campos at 37-42%), narrowing from earlier spring polls where Campos had led. Lyra's incumbency since her 2022 victory, combined with approval ratings near 60% in some measures and the October 4 first-round timeline, underpins the market's positioning in this rematch. The race remains closely contested within margins of error, with second-round scenarios and turnout among key Pernambuco voting blocs likely to determine the outcome.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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