Recent heavy rainfall across Minas Gerais, running well above seasonal norms through September and into early October, has replenished soil moisture and reduced immediate drought stress during coffee flowering. However, a developing strong El Niño—forecast to peak intensity through late 2026 and early 2027—typically suppresses central Brazilian precipitation during the fruit-set window of October–December, raising the prospect of extended dry spells and elevated temperatures that could intensify severe drought metrics. Model divergence on the timing and magnitude of these deficits, combined with recent surplus conditions, sustains trader uncertainty across the closely matched probability bins for peak drought extent or severity.