Traders have overwhelmingly priced the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026" market at 4 days (99.6% implied probability) because OpenAI's status page and Downdetector data documented four distinct incidents with widespread user reports of login failures, elevated errors, and service degradation. Confirmed disruptions occurred around July 14, 23-25, and 27, including a major global outage on the 25th affecting ChatGPT, the API, and image generation, followed by lingering latency and conversation-loading problems. This timeline aligns closely with historical patterns of intermittent large language model reliability issues during periods of high demand. The strong consensus reflects verified reports rather than speculation, though the outcome could shift if final resolution criteria exclude partial or brief events or if additional minor incidents on July 29-31 are reclassified as qualifying outage days.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?
# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026?
4 100.0%
5+ 1.9%
<3 <1%
3 <1%
$48,682 Обс.
$48,682 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
<3
No
3
No
4
Yes
5+
No
4 100.0%
5+ 1.9%
<3 <1%
3 <1%
$48,682 Обс.
$48,682 Обс.
Jul 31, 2026
<3
$13,120 Обс.
No
3
$9,077 Обс.
No
4
$10,996 Обс.
Yes
5+
$15,489 Обс.
No
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026" market at 4 days (99.6% implied probability) because OpenAI's status page and Downdetector data documented four distinct incidents with widespread user reports of login failures, elevated errors, and service degradation. Confirmed disruptions occurred around July 14, 23-25, and 27, including a major global outage on the 25th affecting ChatGPT, the API, and image generation, followed by lingering latency and conversation-loading problems. This timeline aligns closely with historical patterns of intermittent large language model reliability issues during periods of high demand. The strong consensus reflects verified reports rather than speculation, though the outcome could shift if final resolution criteria exclude partial or brief events or if additional minor incidents on July 29-31 are reclassified as qualifying outage days.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 30, 2026, 1:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$48,682Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders have overwhelmingly priced the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026" market at 4 days (99.6% implied probability) because OpenAI's status page and Downdetector data documented four distinct incidents with widespread user reports of login failures, elevated errors, and service degradation. Confirmed disruptions occurred around July 14, 23-25, and 27, including a major global outage on the 25th affecting ChatGPT, the API, and image generation, followed by lingering latency and conversation-loading problems. This timeline aligns closely with historical patterns of intermittent large language model reliability issues during periods of high demand. The strong consensus reflects verified reports rather than speculation, though the outcome could shift if final resolution criteria exclude partial or brief events or if additional minor incidents on July 29-31 are reclassified as qualifying outage days.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' as of the time it is marked as “Resolved” during the specified month (ET).
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' or 'Sora,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
Classifications of an incident while it is ongoing will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Only classifications of events that are resolved will be considered.
Qualifying incidents include outages and other issues classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' when they are resolved, during this market's above-specified timeframe.
Revisions that upgrade an incident’s impact classification to 'Partial/Full Outage' will qualify if the incident was resolved and the revision is published within this market’s timeframe.
This market will resolve at 12:00 PM ET on the day following the specified timeframe, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing, and all relevant data has been released. If either condition is not met, the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$48,682Дата завершення
Jul 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 30, 2026, 1:28 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Traders have overwhelmingly priced the "# of ChatGPT Outage Days in July 2026" market at 4 days (99.6% implied probability) because OpenAI's status page and Downdetector data documented four distinct incidents with widespread user reports of login failures, elevated errors, and service degradation. Confirmed disruptions occurred around July 14, 23-25, and 27, including a major global outage on the 25th affecting ChatGPT, the API, and image generation, followed by lingering latency and conversation-loading problems. This timeline aligns closely with historical patterns of intermittent large language model reliability issues during periods of high demand. The strong consensus reflects verified reports rather than speculation, though the outcome could shift if final resolution criteria exclude partial or brief events or if additional minor incidents on July 29-31 are reclassified as qualifying outage days.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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