Jack Lowden leads the market at 37% on the strength of targeted insider buzz, including Gary Oldman’s public endorsement of his Slow Horses co-star as a shortlist contender and Richard Osman’s podcast claim that Lowden is strongly considered. Callum Turner sits close behind at 19%, buoyed by his Masters of the Air and Fantastic Beasts pedigree plus recent marriage to Dua Lipa, while Jack Barton and Jack O’Connell hold smaller slices from reported screen-test mentions. The 19% probability on “No Bond chosen” captures ongoing uncertainty around an official Amazon MGM Studios announcement by year-end under Denis Villeneuve, with the six-actor shortlist and lack of guild or precursor signals keeping trader sentiment fluid ahead of any casting confirmation.