**Trader sentiment heavily favors no Gemini Pro release by September 30 (74% implied probability), reflecting Google’s ongoing delays with the flagship 3.5 Pro model.** Teased at I/O 2026 in May with a June target from CEO Sundar Pichai, the model missed that window and subsequent July expectations due to shortfalls on coding and agentic benchmarks, prompting additional testing and iteration. Google has instead shipped a steady cadence of faster, cost-efficient Flash variants—most recently Gemini 3.8 Flash and a cybersecurity edition on September 2—while signaling work on Gemini 4. With only three weeks left in the month and no confirmed Pro timeline or partner-testing updates, markets price the near-term release risk as low. Key near-term catalysts include any Google DeepMind announcements or API changelog entries that could shift the “as soon as it’s ready” stance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоNext Google Gemini Pro Model released on...?
No release by September 30 74%
September 22 5.4%
September 23 4.1%
September 30 3.9%
$63,705 Обс.
$63,705 Обс.
September 6
<1%
September 7
3%
September 8
1%
September 9
<1%
September 10
<1%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
5%
September 23
4%
September 24
2%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
1%
September 29
3%
September 30
4%
No release by September 30
74%
No release by September 30 74%
September 22 5.4%
September 23 4.1%
September 30 3.9%
$63,705 Обс.
$63,705 Обс.
September 6
<1%
September 7
3%
September 8
1%
September 9
<1%
September 10
<1%
September 11
1%
September 12
1%
September 13
1%
September 14
<1%
September 15
2%
September 16
2%
September 17
2%
September 18
<1%
September 19
1%
September 20
1%
September 21
1%
September 22
5%
September 23
4%
September 24
2%
September 25
1%
September 26
1%
September 27
1%
September 28
1%
September 29
3%
September 30
4%
No release by September 30
74%
Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify.
Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Вирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment heavily favors no Gemini Pro release by September 30 (74% implied probability), reflecting Google’s ongoing delays with the flagship 3.5 Pro model.** Teased at I/O 2026 in May with a June target from CEO Sundar Pichai, the model missed that window and subsequent July expectations due to shortfalls on coding and agentic benchmarks, prompting additional testing and iteration. Google has instead shipped a steady cadence of faster, cost-efficient Flash variants—most recently Gemini 3.8 Flash and a cybersecurity edition on September 2—while signaling work on Gemini 4. With only three weeks left in the month and no confirmed Pro timeline or partner-testing updates, markets price the near-term release risk as low. Key near-term catalysts include any Google DeepMind announcements or API changelog entries that could shift the “as soon as it’s ready” stance.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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