Friedrich Merz, who became Chancellor in May 2025 leading a CDU/CSU-SPD coalition, faces mounting internal and electoral pressure following heavy CDU losses in September 2026 state votes in Saxony-Anhalt, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, and Berlin, where the AfD surged and his personal approval ratings hit historic lows around 14%. Speculation centers on a possible mid-term "Kanzlertausch" within the CDU, with North Rhine-Westphalia Minister-President Hendrik Wüst and Bavarian Minister-President Markus Söder frequently cited as alternatives, though no open challenge has materialized and several state premiers have publicly backed Merz for stability. The next regular Bundestag election remains scheduled for 2029, with no snap election triggered. Traders price the absence of any successor before 2028 at 68.5% as the leading outcome, reflecting the coalition's continuation and limited immediate pathways to replacement despite the recent setbacks.