Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a razor-thin contest for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with sub-$23,500 at 49% implied probability edging $33,000-$36,000 at 43.5%, reflecting dueling bets on recession risks versus AI-fueled growth. The index's recent surge to 26,672 on April 17—its longest winning streak—stemmed from Middle East de-escalation reopening the Strait of Hormuz and sliding oil prices, countering an earlier 10% correction amid US-Iran tensions that capped YTD gains at 5.6%. Elevated valuations, Fed funds steady at 3.5%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% fuel downside wagers, while Mag 7 earnings beats and potential June rate cuts support upside. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC and Q2 tech results.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$23,500-$25,000 76%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
$33,000-$36,000 41%
$30,500-$33,000 41%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
49%
$23,500-$25,000
76%
$25,000-$26,500
40%
$26,500-$28,500
42%
$28,500-$30,500
-
$30,500-$33,000
41%
$33,000-$36,000
41%
>$36,000
26%
$23,500-$25,000 76%
$26,500-$28,500 42%
$33,000-$36,000 41%
$30,500-$33,000 41%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
<$23,500
$0 Обс.
49%
$23,500-$25,000
$10 Обс.
76%
$25,000-$26,500
$0 Обс.
40%
$26,500-$28,500
$0 Обс.
42%
$28,500-$30,500
$0 Обс.
-
$30,500-$33,000
$0 Обс.
41%
$33,000-$36,000
$0 Обс.
41%
>$36,000
$42 Обс.
26%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a razor-thin contest for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with sub-$23,500 at 49% implied probability edging $33,000-$36,000 at 43.5%, reflecting dueling bets on recession risks versus AI-fueled growth. The index's recent surge to 26,672 on April 17—its longest winning streak—stemmed from Middle East de-escalation reopening the Strait of Hormuz and sliding oil prices, countering an earlier 10% correction amid US-Iran tensions that capped YTD gains at 5.6%. Elevated valuations, Fed funds steady at 3.5%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% fuel downside wagers, while Mag 7 earnings beats and potential June rate cuts support upside. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC and Q2 tech results.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Ринок відкрито: Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ET
Обсяг
$52Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a razor-thin contest for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with sub-$23,500 at 49% implied probability edging $33,000-$36,000 at 43.5%, reflecting dueling bets on recession risks versus AI-fueled growth. The index's recent surge to 26,672 on April 17—its longest winning streak—stemmed from Middle East de-escalation reopening the Strait of Hormuz and sliding oil prices, countering an earlier 10% correction amid US-Iran tensions that capped YTD gains at 5.6%. Elevated valuations, Fed funds steady at 3.5%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% fuel downside wagers, while Mag 7 earnings beats and potential June rate cuts support upside. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC and Q2 tech results.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for Nasdaq 100 (NDX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Обсяг
$52Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 6, 2026, 9:39 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5ENDX/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders' skin-in-the-game consensus prices a razor-thin contest for Nasdaq 100's December 2026 close, with sub-$23,500 at 49% implied probability edging $33,000-$36,000 at 43.5%, reflecting dueling bets on recession risks versus AI-fueled growth. The index's recent surge to 26,672 on April 17—its longest winning streak—stemmed from Middle East de-escalation reopening the Strait of Hormuz and sliding oil prices, countering an earlier 10% correction amid US-Iran tensions that capped YTD gains at 5.6%. Elevated valuations, Fed funds steady at 3.5%-3.75%, 10-year Treasury yields near 4.3%, and March unemployment at 4.3% fuel downside wagers, while Mag 7 earnings beats and potential June rate cuts support upside. Key swing factors include the April 28-29 FOMC and Q2 tech results.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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