Mojtaba Khamenei has governed as Iran's Supreme Leader through written statements and private meetings since succeeding his father following the March 2026 strikes, with no verified public appearance since. Regime officials, including diplomats and the parliament speaker, attribute the continued absence to security risks from wartime conditions and threats, while reporting recent consultations with the president and military commanders in October and November. A November 4 written message warned against renewed U.S. aggression, consistent with his pattern of indirect communication. These factors, combined with the Assembly of Experts' selection process and emphasis on operational continuity, have kept trader-implied probabilities for a near-term public appearance low, reflecting assessments of structural barriers in Iran's current leadership transition and conflict environment.