Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and fading external tailwinds, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around the 0.0%–1.6% annualized bands. The Q2 final print of +0.4% QoQ (+1.4% annualized) reflected upward revisions to government spending and capital expenditure alongside a positive net-trade contribution, yet private consumption remained essentially flat amid persistent inflation and energy-cost pressures. Analysts surveyed by Nikkei project near-zero Q3 growth as surging crude-oil imports normalize the prior import-drag benefit, while real-wage gains have yet to translate into stronger household spending. Middle East supply risks and potential Bank of Japan policy normalization add further uncertainty to the near-term trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено0.8%–1.6% 31%
0.0%–0.8% 25.3%
-0.8%–0.0% 15%
2.4%–3.2% 6.0%
$26,536 Обс.
$26,536 Обс.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
15%
0.0%–0.8%
25%
0.8%–1.6%
31%
1.6%–2.4%
5%
2.4%–3.2%
6%
3.2%–4.0%
3%
4.0%+
1%
0.8%–1.6% 31%
0.0%–0.8% 25.3%
-0.8%–0.0% 15%
2.4%–3.2% 6.0%
$26,536 Обс.
$26,536 Обс.
Nov 15, 2026
<-2.4%
$594 Обс.
4%
-2.4%– -1.6%
$3,748 Обс.
1%
-1.6%– -0.8%
$282 Обс.
4%
-0.8%–0.0%
$2,487 Обс.
15%
0.0%–0.8%
$11,198 Обс.
25%
0.8%–1.6%
$2,402 Обс.
31%
1.6%–2.4%
$679 Обс.
5%
2.4%–3.2%
$3,348 Обс.
6%
3.2%–4.0%
$1,234 Обс.
3%
4.0%+
$561 Обс.
1%
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and fading external tailwinds, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around the 0.0%–1.6% annualized bands. The Q2 final print of +0.4% QoQ (+1.4% annualized) reflected upward revisions to government spending and capital expenditure alongside a positive net-trade contribution, yet private consumption remained essentially flat amid persistent inflation and energy-cost pressures. Analysts surveyed by Nikkei project near-zero Q3 growth as surging crude-oil imports normalize the prior import-drag benefit, while real-wage gains have yet to translate into stronger household spending. Middle East supply risks and potential Bank of Japan policy normalization add further uncertainty to the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Ринок відкрито: Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$26,536Дата завершення
Nov 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.htmlJapan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and fading external tailwinds, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around the 0.0%–1.6% annualized bands. The Q2 final print of +0.4% QoQ (+1.4% annualized) reflected upward revisions to government spending and capital expenditure alongside a positive net-trade contribution, yet private consumption remained essentially flat amid persistent inflation and energy-cost pressures. Analysts surveyed by Nikkei project near-zero Q3 growth as surging crude-oil imports normalize the prior import-drag benefit, while real-wage gains have yet to translate into stronger household spending. Middle East supply risks and potential Bank of Japan policy normalization add further uncertainty to the near-term trajectory.
This market will resolve according to Japan's real gross domestic product growth rate (Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized, %) in the third quarter of 2026, as reported in the Japan Cabinet Office's Quarterly Estimates of GDP (First Preliminary Estimates) release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for release on November 16, 2026.
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
The relevant figure may be found in the summary document, in table 1-1 'Quarterly Real Growth Rate (Seasonally Adjusted Series, Quarter-to-Quarter)' — this figure expresses the quarterly growth rate compounded over four quarters to produce an annualized equivalent. Changes in the Japan Cabinet Office's GDP reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/sokuhou/sokuhou_top.html
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized GDP growth rates to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.1%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.esri.cao.go.jp/en/sna/kouhyou/kouhyou_top.html
Обсяг
$26,536Дата завершення
Nov 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 17, 2026, 3:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Japan’s Q3 2026 GDP growth outlook centers on subdued domestic demand and fading external tailwinds, with market-implied odds clustered tightly around the 0.0%–1.6% annualized bands. The Q2 final print of +0.4% QoQ (+1.4% annualized) reflected upward revisions to government spending and capital expenditure alongside a positive net-trade contribution, yet private consumption remained essentially flat amid persistent inflation and energy-cost pressures. Analysts surveyed by Nikkei project near-zero Q3 growth as surging crude-oil imports normalize the prior import-drag benefit, while real-wage gains have yet to translate into stronger household spending. Middle East supply risks and potential Bank of Japan policy normalization add further uncertainty to the near-term trajectory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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