Recent readings show Japan's core CPI YoY moderating to 1.6% in June 2026 and 1.4% in May, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid energy subsidies and softer food prices. Trader consensus, reflected in the near-even split between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% brackets, centers on whether wage pass-through, yen movements, and fading subsidies will lift the annual average back toward or above 2%. Official projections place fiscal 2026 core inflation around 1.9-2.2%, with core-core measures holding steadier near 1.7-2.0%. Key swing factors include upcoming monthly releases, the BoJ's policy path, and global commodity trends, underscoring the range-bound uncertainty priced into these outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено≤1.9% 49.5%
2.0-2.4% 47%
2.5-2.9% 1.3%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$37,230 Обс.
$37,230 Обс.
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
47%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
≤1.9% 49.5%
2.0-2.4% 47%
2.5-2.9% 1.3%
3.0-3.4% <1%
$37,230 Обс.
$37,230 Обс.
≤1.9%
49%
2.0-2.4%
47%
2.5-2.9%
1%
3.0-3.4%
1%
3.5-3.9%
<1%
4.0%+
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 17, 2026, 7:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be the SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report released for 2026 (https://www.stat.go.jp/english/data/cpi/1588.html#nen), currently scheduled to be released on January 22, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official SBJ Consumer Price Index Annual Report, which reports percentage change in the Consumer Price Index over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.8%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the avoidance of doubt, this market resolves on the core CPI figure — the all items index excluding fresh food — not the headline all items CPI figure.
If the SBJ does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until March 31, 2027. If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent readings show Japan's core CPI YoY moderating to 1.6% in June 2026 and 1.4% in May, remaining below the Bank of Japan's 2% target amid energy subsidies and softer food prices. Trader consensus, reflected in the near-even split between the ≤1.9% and 2.0-2.4% brackets, centers on whether wage pass-through, yen movements, and fading subsidies will lift the annual average back toward or above 2%. Official projections place fiscal 2026 core inflation around 1.9-2.2%, with core-core measures holding steadier near 1.7-2.0%. Key swing factors include upcoming monthly releases, the BoJ's policy path, and global commodity trends, underscoring the range-bound uncertainty priced into these outcomes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено



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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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