Iranian forces have repeatedly struck or harassed commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026, including drone and missile attacks on tankers and container ships in late August and early September. These incidents prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian military assets and tankers, followed by renewed blockades and sharply reduced transits through the chokepoint. Traders price high probability of additional confirmed Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures before September 30 due to persistent IRGC enforcement actions, mine threats, route restrictions, and the pattern of escalation despite intermittent cease-fire talks. Key upcoming factors include any further naval movements, sanctions enforcement, or diplomatic deadlines that could either deter or provoke new attacks within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$244,221 Обс.
Aug 1, 2026
August 1
No
August 2
No
August 3
No
August 4
No
August 5
No
August 6
No
August 7
No
August 8
No
August 9
No
August 10
No
August 11
No
August 12
No
August 13
Yes
August 14
Yes
August 15
No
August 16
No
August 17
Yes
August 18
No
August 19
No
August 20
No
August 21
No
August 22
No
August 23
No
August 24
No
August 25
No
August 26
No
August 27
No
August 28
No
August 29
No
August 30
No
August 31
Yes
$244,221 Обс.
August 1
$3,094 Обс.
No
August 2
$574 Обс.
No
August 3
$14,061 Обс.
No
August 4
$5,864 Обс.
No
August 5
$1,382 Обс.
No
August 6
$2,142 Обс.
No
August 7
$3,185 Обс.
No
August 8
$33,690 Обс.
No
August 9
$5,541 Обс.
No
August 10
$5,988 Обс.
No
August 11
$1,334 Обс.
No
August 12
$1,014 Обс.
No
August 13
$13,778 Обс.
Yes
August 14
$30,221 Обс.
Yes
August 15
$11,030 Обс.
No
August 16
$5,392 Обс.
No
August 17
$9,927 Обс.
Yes
August 18
$2,987 Обс.
No
August 19
$6,190 Обс.
No
August 20
$3,787 Обс.
No
August 21
$1,935 Обс.
No
August 22
$1,851 Обс.
No
August 23
$4,969 Обс.
No
August 24
$11,933 Обс.
No
August 25
$1,666 Обс.
No
August 26
$2,235 Обс.
No
August 27
$3,129 Обс.
No
August 28
$2,166 Обс.
No
August 29
$4,305 Обс.
No
August 30
$1,290 Обс.
No
August 31
$47,559 Обс.
Yes
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have repeatedly struck or harassed commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026, including drone and missile attacks on tankers and container ships in late August and early September. These incidents prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian military assets and tankers, followed by renewed blockades and sharply reduced transits through the chokepoint. Traders price high probability of additional confirmed Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures before September 30 due to persistent IRGC enforcement actions, mine threats, route restrictions, and the pattern of escalation despite intermittent cease-fire talks. Key upcoming factors include any further naval movements, sanctions enforcement, or diplomatic deadlines that could either deter or provoke new attacks within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Обсяг
$244,221Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iranian forces have repeatedly struck or harassed commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026, including drone and missile attacks on tankers and container ships in late August and early September. These incidents prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian military assets and tankers, followed by renewed blockades and sharply reduced transits through the chokepoint. Traders price high probability of additional confirmed Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures before September 30 due to persistent IRGC enforcement actions, mine threats, route restrictions, and the pattern of escalation despite intermittent cease-fire talks. Key upcoming factors include any further naval movements, sanctions enforcement, or diplomatic deadlines that could either deter or provoke new attacks within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Обсяг
$244,221Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Результат запропоновано: No
Без оскарження
Кінцевий результат: No
Iranian forces have repeatedly struck or harassed commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waters amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that began in February 2026, including drone and missile attacks on tankers and container ships in late August and early September. These incidents prompted U.S. retaliatory strikes on Iranian military assets and tankers, followed by renewed blockades and sharply reduced transits through the chokepoint. Traders price high probability of additional confirmed Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures before September 30 due to persistent IRGC enforcement actions, mine threats, route restrictions, and the pattern of escalation despite intermittent cease-fire talks. Key upcoming factors include any further naval movements, sanctions enforcement, or diplomatic deadlines that could either deter or provoke new attacks within the resolution window.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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