President Donald Trump has not formally invoked the Insurrection Act as of early October 2026, despite repeated public statements that he would consider doing so if necessary during immigration enforcement operations or amid civil disorder. The administration instead relied on 10 U.S.C. § 12406 to federalize National Guard units for deployments in cities including Los Angeles, Portland, and Chicago in 2025, actions that faced court challenges and a Supreme Court ruling limiting that authority. Recent comments in a Time interview indicate Trump has not ruled out invocation around the November 2026 midterms but has not committed to it, citing low crime rates and existing law enforcement capacity. Trader consensus reflects these patterns, assigning roughly 14 percent implied probability of formal invocation by year-end, with any shift likely tied to escalated protests, congressional outcomes, or specific enforcement blockages before December 31.