Recent redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025 and upheld for the 2026 cycle, shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans, reducing the baseline for Democratic U.S. House seats from the prior 13 to roughly eight to ten under 2024 voting patterns. This mid-decade map change, which added three to five projected Republican advantages, collides with a national midterm environment where the president's party historically loses seats amid low approval ratings and generic ballot trends favoring Democrats. Competitive South Texas districts such as 15, 28, and 34, along with shifts in ratings for seats like TX-15 toward greater competitiveness, create the narrow band of outcomes traders assign highest probability between 10 and 13 Democratic wins. Primary results, incumbent retirements, and ongoing polling in battleground districts further sustain this tight distribution without decisive separation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено12 20%
10 17%
11 16%
13 16%
$11,959 Обс.
$11,959 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
<8
<1%
8
7%
9
11%
10
17%
11
16%
12
20%
13
16%
14+
11%
12 20%
10 17%
11 16%
13 16%
$11,959 Обс.
$11,959 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
<8
$220 Обс.
<1%
8
$3,686 Обс.
7%
9
$1,046 Обс.
11%
10
$1,359 Обс.
17%
11
$608 Обс.
16%
12
$674 Обс.
20%
13
$1,489 Обс.
16%
14+
$2,878 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025 and upheld for the 2026 cycle, shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans, reducing the baseline for Democratic U.S. House seats from the prior 13 to roughly eight to ten under 2024 voting patterns. This mid-decade map change, which added three to five projected Republican advantages, collides with a national midterm environment where the president's party historically loses seats amid low approval ratings and generic ballot trends favoring Democrats. Competitive South Texas districts such as 15, 28, and 34, along with shifts in ratings for seats like TX-15 toward greater competitiveness, create the narrow band of outcomes traders assign highest probability between 10 and 13 Democratic wins. Primary results, incumbent retirements, and ongoing polling in battleground districts further sustain this tight distribution without decisive separation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$11,959Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.Recent redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025 and upheld for the 2026 cycle, shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans, reducing the baseline for Democratic U.S. House seats from the prior 13 to roughly eight to ten under 2024 voting patterns. This mid-decade map change, which added three to five projected Republican advantages, collides with a national midterm environment where the president's party historically loses seats amid low approval ratings and generic ballot trends favoring Democrats. Competitive South Texas districts such as 15, 28, and 34, along with shifts in ratings for seats like TX-15 toward greater competitiveness, create the narrow band of outcomes traders assign highest probability between 10 and 13 Democratic wins. Primary results, incumbent retirements, and ongoing polling in battleground districts further sustain this tight distribution without decisive separation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Texas in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Texas US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$11,959Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:14 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent redistricting in Texas, enacted in 2025 and upheld for the 2026 cycle, shifted several Democratic-leaning districts toward Republicans, reducing the baseline for Democratic U.S. House seats from the prior 13 to roughly eight to ten under 2024 voting patterns. This mid-decade map change, which added three to five projected Republican advantages, collides with a national midterm environment where the president's party historically loses seats amid low approval ratings and generic ballot trends favoring Democrats. Competitive South Texas districts such as 15, 28, and 34, along with shifts in ratings for seats like TX-15 toward greater competitiveness, create the narrow band of outcomes traders assign highest probability between 10 and 13 Democratic wins. Primary results, incumbent retirements, and ongoing polling in battleground districts further sustain this tight distribution without decisive separation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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