The new congressional map enacted by Florida Republicans in April 2026 and upheld by state courts, including the Supreme Court in June, forms the dominant driver of trader positioning. The lines shift the state from an 8-20 Democratic-Republican split toward a projected 4-24 configuration by cracking Democratic strongholds in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, and South Florida areas while adding Republican-leaning territory. With primaries completed in August, attention now centers on a handful of remaining competitive districts where Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto face altered terrain, alongside limited Republican-held targets. The spread across outcomes from 4 to 11+ reflects uncertainty over turnout in these swing seats, national midterm dynamics, and whether Democrats can consolidate support in the few districts still rated as toss-ups or lean Democratic by forecasters. Late-cycle polling or legal developments could narrow the range before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено11 23%
7 15%
12+ 14%
4 13.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 2, 2026
<4
1%
4
13%
5
10%
6
10%
7
15%
8
9%
9
10%
10
3%
11
23%
12+
14%
11 23%
7 15%
12+ 14%
4 13.1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 2, 2026
<4
$177 Обс.
1%
4
$1,291 Обс.
13%
5
$455 Обс.
10%
6
$280 Обс.
10%
7
$403 Обс.
15%
8
$332 Обс.
9%
9
$361 Обс.
10%
10
$590 Обс.
3%
11
$394 Обс.
23%
12+
$399 Обс.
14%
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new congressional map enacted by Florida Republicans in April 2026 and upheld by state courts, including the Supreme Court in June, forms the dominant driver of trader positioning. The lines shift the state from an 8-20 Democratic-Republican split toward a projected 4-24 configuration by cracking Democratic strongholds in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, and South Florida areas while adding Republican-leaning territory. With primaries completed in August, attention now centers on a handful of remaining competitive districts where Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto face altered terrain, alongside limited Republican-held targets. The spread across outcomes from 4 to 11+ reflects uncertainty over turnout in these swing seats, national midterm dynamics, and whether Democrats can consolidate support in the few districts still rated as toss-ups or lean Democratic by forecasters. Late-cycle polling or legal developments could narrow the range before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,683Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The new congressional map enacted by Florida Republicans in April 2026 and upheld by state courts, including the Supreme Court in June, forms the dominant driver of trader positioning. The lines shift the state from an 8-20 Democratic-Republican split toward a projected 4-24 configuration by cracking Democratic strongholds in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, and South Florida areas while adding Republican-leaning territory. With primaries completed in August, attention now centers on a handful of remaining competitive districts where Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto face altered terrain, alongside limited Republican-held targets. The spread across outcomes from 4 to 11+ reflects uncertainty over turnout in these swing seats, national midterm dynamics, and whether Democrats can consolidate support in the few districts still rated as toss-ups or lean Democratic by forecasters. Late-cycle polling or legal developments could narrow the range before November.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats in the US House of Representatives won by the Democratic Party in Florida in the 2026 United States midterm election.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
All Florida US House of Representatives elections held as part of the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th congress are included. Special elections to fill a vacancy for the remainder of an unexpired term are not included, whether or not held concurrently with the 2026 United States midterm election. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat.
Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
Members of the House elected as independents who formally caucus, or who announce their intent to caucus, with a party prior to the date of the 2026 United States midterm election are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of relevant members of the US House of Representatives elected as independents cannot be determined as of the date of the 2026 United States midterm election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$4,683Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 11, 2026, 10:18 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The new congressional map enacted by Florida Republicans in April 2026 and upheld by state courts, including the Supreme Court in June, forms the dominant driver of trader positioning. The lines shift the state from an 8-20 Democratic-Republican split toward a projected 4-24 configuration by cracking Democratic strongholds in the Tampa Bay, Orlando, and South Florida areas while adding Republican-leaning territory. With primaries completed in August, attention now centers on a handful of remaining competitive districts where Democratic incumbents such as Kathy Castor and Darren Soto face altered terrain, alongside limited Republican-held targets. The spread across outcomes from 4 to 11+ reflects uncertainty over turnout in these swing seats, national midterm dynamics, and whether Democrats can consolidate support in the few districts still rated as toss-ups or lean Democratic by forecasters. Late-cycle polling or legal developments could narrow the range before November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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