Incumbent Randy Fine holds an 84.5% share in the FL-06 Republican primary market due to his April 2025 special election win, extensive endorsements from party leaders including President Trump, and superior fundraising that has outpaced challengers. Dan Bilzerian’s early April 2026 filing as a high-profile social media influencer lifted his odds to 9.2% by generating national attention and name recognition, though traders discount his prospects given limited political infrastructure and grassroots organization. Aaron Baker remains at 6.5% on the strength of prior primary experience and local efforts, while the remaining candidates register below 1% amid minimal visibility or resources. With the August 18 primary still months away, low turnout dynamics and potential late endorsements continue to shape the current trader consensus.