A developing super El Niño, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast to exceed +2.5°C and potentially reach record strength by late 2026, stands as the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment on first measurable snow timing. This phase typically strengthens the southern jet stream, favoring milder northern U.S. temperatures and delayed Arctic air intrusions during fall and early winter, consistent with historical analogs. Forecasters also monitor the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Atlantic sea-surface patterns, and early Polar Vortex signals for potential mid-season disruptions. NOAA’s next ENSO update and ECMWF seasonal runs in mid-September will refine these outlooks, alongside initial Arctic Oscillation trends that determine whether cold air reaches snow-prone regions in time for early-season events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFirst snow of the 2026 season

Buffalo, NY by October 31
76%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
50%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
55%

Boston, MA by November 15
71%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
91%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
97%

Detroit, MI by November 15
64%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
73%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
44%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
90%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
54%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
85%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
74%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
88%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
57%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
15%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
73%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
$8,704 Обс.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
76%

Denver, CO by October 31
62%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
50%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
55%

Boston, MA by November 15
71%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
91%

Chicago, IL by November 15
63%

Denver, CO by November 15
97%

Detroit, MI by November 15
64%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
73%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
44%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
90%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
54%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
85%

Boston, MA by November 30
85%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
94%

Chicago, IL by November 30
74%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
11%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
88%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
94%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
57%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
93%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
15%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
73%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
44%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KBUF (midnight to midnight local time, America/New_York).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KBUF, issued as product CLIBUF. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIBUF.
A developing super El Niño, with equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperatures forecast to exceed +2.5°C and potentially reach record strength by late 2026, stands as the dominant driver shifting trader sentiment on first measurable snow timing. This phase typically strengthens the southern jet stream, favoring milder northern U.S. temperatures and delayed Arctic air intrusions during fall and early winter, consistent with historical analogs. Forecasters also monitor the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, Atlantic sea-surface patterns, and early Polar Vortex signals for potential mid-season disruptions. NOAA’s next ENSO update and ECMWF seasonal runs in mid-September will refine these outlooks, alongside initial Arctic Oscillation trends that determine whether cold air reaches snow-prone regions in time for early-season events.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено

Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання