**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% in the May 2026 primary and faces only Republican James Duffie in the November 3 general election for Georgia's 4th congressional district.** The solidly Democratic seat carries a D+27 partisan voter index, and Johnson has routinely prevailed by margins exceeding 50 points in prior cycles. With no Democratic primary runoff required and minimal Republican opposition, traders assign a 95% implied probability to an outright majority winner on election night. Georgia law triggers a December 1 runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%, a threshold forecasters view as highly unlikely given the district's consistent voting patterns and the absence of late-breaking developments that could narrow the contest.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFirst Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
First Round Outright Winner in the GA-04 House Election?
95% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
95% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% in the May 2026 primary and faces only Republican James Duffie in the November 3 general election for Georgia's 4th congressional district.**
The solidly Democratic seat carries a D+27 partisan voter index, and Johnson has routinely prevailed by margins exceeding 50 points in prior cycles. With no Democratic primary runoff required and minimal Republican opposition, traders assign a 95% implied probability to an outright majority winner on election night. Georgia law triggers a December 1 runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%, a threshold forecasters view as highly unlikely given the district's consistent voting patterns and the absence of late-breaking developments that could narrow the contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,531Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% in the May 2026 primary and faces only Republican James Duffie in the November 3 general election for Georgia's 4th congressional district.**
The solidly Democratic seat carries a D+27 partisan voter index, and Johnson has routinely prevailed by margins exceeding 50 points in prior cycles. With no Democratic primary runoff required and minimal Republican opposition, traders assign a 95% implied probability to an outright majority winner on election night. Georgia law triggers a December 1 runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%, a threshold forecasters view as highly unlikely given the district's consistent voting patterns and the absence of late-breaking developments that could narrow the contest.
The first round of the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election will be held on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” in the first round by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the 2026 midterm GA-04 House election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.
If the results of the first round of the specified election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the GA-04 House election.
Обсяг
$1,531Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 5:20 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...**Incumbent Democrat Hank Johnson secured his party's nomination with nearly 80% in the May 2026 primary and faces only Republican James Duffie in the November 3 general election for Georgia's 4th congressional district.** The solidly Democratic seat carries a D+27 partisan voter index, and Johnson has routinely prevailed by margins exceeding 50 points in prior cycles. With no Democratic primary runoff required and minimal Republican opposition, traders assign a 95% implied probability to an outright majority winner on election night. Georgia law triggers a December 1 runoff only if no candidate exceeds 50%, a threshold forecasters view as highly unlikely given the district's consistent voting patterns and the absence of late-breaking developments that could narrow the contest.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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