Recent U.S. strikes on military sites at Kharg Island and nearby locations in the Persian Gulf have disrupted Iranian oil logistics without transferring control of Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with loadings falling to 251,000 barrels per day in August amid the blockade and reduced storage to 19.45 million barrels. Brent crude has traded near $97 per barrel on supply concerns, while Iran maintains naval oversight of the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirms sovereignty over the islands. Trader-implied odds heavily favor continued Iranian control through the September 30 resolution, reflecting limited evidence of occupation despite heightened sanctions enforcement and tanker strikes. Key near-term variables include any further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset moves or diplomatic navigation talks with Oman.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$144,795 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
2%
$144,795 Обс.
September 30
$92,019 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. strikes on military sites at Kharg Island and nearby locations in the Persian Gulf have disrupted Iranian oil logistics without transferring control of Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with loadings falling to 251,000 barrels per day in August amid the blockade and reduced storage to 19.45 million barrels. Brent crude has traded near $97 per barrel on supply concerns, while Iran maintains naval oversight of the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirms sovereignty over the islands. Trader-implied odds heavily favor continued Iranian control through the September 30 resolution, reflecting limited evidence of occupation despite heightened sanctions enforcement and tanker strikes. Key near-term variables include any further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset moves or diplomatic navigation talks with Oman.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$144,795Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. strikes on military sites at Kharg Island and nearby locations in the Persian Gulf have disrupted Iranian oil logistics without transferring control of Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with loadings falling to 251,000 barrels per day in August amid the blockade and reduced storage to 19.45 million barrels. Brent crude has traded near $97 per barrel on supply concerns, while Iran maintains naval oversight of the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirms sovereignty over the islands. Trader-implied odds heavily favor continued Iranian control through the September 30 resolution, reflecting limited evidence of occupation despite heightened sanctions enforcement and tanker strikes. Key near-term variables include any further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset moves or diplomatic navigation talks with Oman.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$144,795Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. strikes on military sites at Kharg Island and nearby locations in the Persian Gulf have disrupted Iranian oil logistics without transferring control of Kharg, Hormuz, Hengam, or Farsi. Kharg handles roughly 90% of Iran’s crude exports, with loadings falling to 251,000 barrels per day in August amid the blockade and reduced storage to 19.45 million barrels. Brent crude has traded near $97 per barrel on supply concerns, while Iran maintains naval oversight of the Strait of Hormuz and reaffirms sovereignty over the islands. Trader-implied odds heavily favor continued Iranian control through the September 30 resolution, reflecting limited evidence of occupation despite heightened sanctions enforcement and tanker strikes. Key near-term variables include any further FOMC-adjacent risk-asset moves or diplomatic navigation talks with Oman.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання