Recent August core CPI data printed at 2.4% YoY, the softest annual reading since early 2021, after a 0.3% m/m gain that exceeded the 0.2% consensus. This has anchored trader expectations for September around similar levels, with forecasts centering on a 0.20% m/m core increase driven by mean-reverting services inflation, subdued shelter components, and modest goods price gains offset by vehicle strength. The tight spread between 2.5% (41.5%) and 2.4% (32.5%) implied probabilities reflects uncertainty over rounding effects, base comparisons, and volatile elements such as airfares and medical services. Upcoming BLS release on October 14 will resolve the market, with any deviation from the 0.19–0.25% m/m range likely shifting odds sharply.