Nigel Farage triggered the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over undeclared donations, then immediately re-standing. With Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and other major parties declining to field candidates, the contest features a record 34 entrants, most independents or minor-party figures including novelty options. Recent Survation polling indicates Farage could reach the mid-70s on low turnout, yet traders price the 70-80% band only modestly ahead of 60-70%, reflecting uncertainty over vote fragmentation among the long ballot, variable participation, and the absence of traditional opposition to consolidate anti-Farage support. Scheduled events remain limited to final hustings before polling.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFarage 70–80% 42.4%
Farage 60–70% 36%
Farage 80%+ 14%
Farage 50–60% 8%
$152,242 Обс.
$152,242 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
2%
Farage 40–50%
2%
Farage 50–60%
8%
Farage 60–70%
36%
Farage 70–80%
42%
Farage 80%+
14%
Farage 70–80% 42.4%
Farage 60–70% 36%
Farage 80%+ 14%
Farage 50–60% 8%
$152,242 Обс.
$152,242 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage <40%
$14,224 Обс.
2%
Farage 40–50%
$15,740 Обс.
2%
Farage 50–60%
$18,495 Обс.
8%
Farage 60–70%
$25,320 Обс.
36%
Farage 70–80%
$40,782 Обс.
42%
Farage 80%+
$37,682 Обс.
14%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage triggered the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over undeclared donations, then immediately re-standing. With Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and other major parties declining to field candidates, the contest features a record 34 entrants, most independents or minor-party figures including novelty options. Recent Survation polling indicates Farage could reach the mid-70s on low turnout, yet traders price the 70-80% band only modestly ahead of 60-70%, reflecting uncertainty over vote fragmentation among the long ballot, variable participation, and the absence of traditional opposition to consolidate anti-Farage support. Scheduled events remain limited to final hustings before polling.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ET
Обсяг
$152,242Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).Nigel Farage triggered the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over undeclared donations, then immediately re-standing. With Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and other major parties declining to field candidates, the contest features a record 34 entrants, most independents or minor-party figures including novelty options. Recent Survation polling indicates Farage could reach the mid-70s on low turnout, yet traders price the 70-80% band only modestly ahead of 60-70%, reflecting uncertainty over vote fragmentation among the long ballot, variable participation, and the absence of traditional opposition to consolidate anti-Farage support. Scheduled events remain limited to final hustings before polling.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Обсяг
$152,242Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2027Ринок відкрито
Jul 8, 2026, 11:22 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Nigel Farage triggered the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat amid scrutiny over undeclared donations, then immediately re-standing. With Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens and other major parties declining to field candidates, the contest features a record 34 entrants, most independents or minor-party figures including novelty options. Recent Survation polling indicates Farage could reach the mid-70s on low turnout, yet traders price the 70-80% band only modestly ahead of 60-70%, reflecting uncertainty over vote fragmentation among the long ballot, variable participation, and the absence of traditional opposition to consolidate anti-Farage support. Scheduled events remain limited to final hustings before polling.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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