Nigel Farage’s resignation in early July 2026, prompted by parliamentary scrutiny of undeclared financial support, triggered the 13 August by-election in the seat he won for Reform UK in 2024. Major parties have declined to contest, leaving comedian Count Binface as the most prominent challenger among a record 34 candidates. Recent local polling shows Farage on approximately 73% of the vote against Binface’s 20%, implying a margin near 53 points on low turnout. This positioning supports the market’s leading outcome of a 40-60% Reform margin, while the smaller probability assigned to a 60%+ margin reflects uncertainty over final turnout and vote splitting among independents and novelty candidates. Traders appear to view Farage’s established local base and the absence of mainstream opposition as decisive factors in a comfortable but not overwhelming victory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFarage 40-60% 62.9%
Farage 60%+ 21%
Farage 20-40% 14.5%
Farage <20% 2.1%
$137,288 Обс.
$137,288 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage 60%+
21%
Farage 40-60%
63%
Farage 20-40%
14%
Farage <20%
2%
Count Binface
1%
Other
<1%
Farage 40-60% 62.9%
Farage 60%+ 21%
Farage 20-40% 14.5%
Farage <20% 2.1%
$137,288 Обс.
$137,288 Обс.
Jun 30, 2027
Farage 60%+
$56,550 Обс.
21%
Farage 40-60%
$17,331 Обс.
63%
Farage 20-40%
$22,990 Обс.
14%
Farage <20%
$16,799 Обс.
2%
Count Binface
$8,791 Обс.
1%
Other
$14,827 Обс.
<1%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Nigel Farage’s resignation in early July 2026, prompted by parliamentary scrutiny of undeclared financial support, triggered the 13 August by-election in the seat he won for Reform UK in 2024. Major parties have declined to contest, leaving comedian Count Binface as the most prominent challenger among a record 34 candidates. Recent local polling shows Farage on approximately 73% of the vote against Binface’s 20%, implying a margin near 53 points on low turnout. This positioning supports the market’s leading outcome of a 40-60% Reform margin, while the smaller probability assigned to a 60%+ margin reflects uncertainty over final turnout and vote splitting among independents and novelty candidates. Traders appear to view Farage’s established local base and the absence of mainstream opposition as decisive factors in a comfortable but not overwhelming victory.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ET
Обсяг
$137,288Дата завершення
Aug 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Nigel Farage’s resignation in early July 2026, prompted by parliamentary scrutiny of undeclared financial support, triggered the 13 August by-election in the seat he won for Reform UK in 2024. Major parties have declined to contest, leaving comedian Count Binface as the most prominent challenger among a record 34 candidates. Recent local polling shows Farage on approximately 73% of the vote against Binface’s 20%, implying a margin near 53 points on low turnout. This positioning supports the market’s leading outcome of a 40-60% Reform margin, while the smaller probability assigned to a 60%+ margin reflects uncertainty over final turnout and vote splitting among independents and novelty candidates. Traders appear to view Farage’s established local base and the absence of mainstream opposition as decisive factors in a comfortable but not overwhelming victory.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Обсяг
$137,288Дата завершення
Aug 13, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 9, 2026, 11:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Nigel Farage’s resignation in early July 2026, prompted by parliamentary scrutiny of undeclared financial support, triggered the 13 August by-election in the seat he won for Reform UK in 2024. Major parties have declined to contest, leaving comedian Count Binface as the most prominent challenger among a record 34 candidates. Recent local polling shows Farage on approximately 73% of the vote against Binface’s 20%, implying a margin near 53 points on low turnout. This positioning supports the market’s leading outcome of a 40-60% Reform margin, while the smaller probability assigned to a 60%+ margin reflects uncertainty over final turnout and vote splitting among independents and novelty candidates. Traders appear to view Farage’s established local base and the absence of mainstream opposition as decisive factors in a comfortable but not overwhelming victory.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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