Geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and roughly 10.5 million barrels per day in shut-in production across key OPEC nations, represent the primary driver behind the 68.5% market-implied probability that WTI Crude Oil (CL) settles above $84 in June. These constraints have triggered sharp Q2 2026 inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day and supported Brent averages near $106 per barrel in May, outweighing softer global demand growth now projected at just 0.2 million barrels per day for the year. Trader consensus, reflected in real-capital positioning on Polymarket, prices in persistence of this risk premium through month-end resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting and any signals of de-escalation that could ease supply tightness.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhat will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?
>$84 69%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 10.5%
$63-$70 2.8%
$199,286 Обс.
$199,286 Обс.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
10%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
69%
>$84 69%
$77-$84 18%
$70-$77 10.5%
$63-$70 2.8%
$199,286 Обс.
$199,286 Обс.
<$42
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
1%
$63-$70
3%
$70-$77
10%
$77-$84
18%
>$84
69%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Geopolitical supply disruptions in the Middle East, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and roughly 10.5 million barrels per day in shut-in production across key OPEC nations, represent the primary driver behind the 68.5% market-implied probability that WTI Crude Oil (CL) settles above $84 in June. These constraints have triggered sharp Q2 2026 inventory draws of 8.5 million barrels per day and supported Brent averages near $106 per barrel in May, outweighing softer global demand growth now projected at just 0.2 million barrels per day for the year. Trader consensus, reflected in real-capital positioning on Polymarket, prices in persistence of this risk premium through month-end resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include the June 7 OPEC+ meeting and any signals of de-escalation that could ease supply tightness.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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