Recent Q2 2026 GDP data at 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft consumption and fixed-asset investment, anchors trader expectations for Q3 growth in the 4.3-4.9% range. Official H1 figures showed 4.7% expansion, with resilient manufacturing and exports offsetting domestic weakness tied to the property sector and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds reflect consensus forecasts near 4.5% for the full year, consistent with authorities’ target band and analyst projections from sources such as Reuters and the IMF. Key upcoming catalysts include the late-July Politburo meeting for potential fiscal stimulus signals and the October Q3 release, with any acceleration in retail sales or policy easing likely to influence near-term pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 6.0%
<3.4% 3.6%
$17,613 Обс.
$17,613 Обс.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
4%
3.4-3.7%
<1%
3.7-4.0%
<1%
4.0-4.3%
6%
4.3-4.6%
55%
4.6-4.9%
34%
4.9-5.2%
3%
5.2-5.5%
1%
5.5%+
2%
4.3-4.6% 55%
4.6-4.9% 34%
4.0-4.3% 6.0%
<3.4% 3.6%
$17,613 Обс.
$17,613 Обс.
Oct 20, 2026
<3.4%
$638 Обс.
4%
3.4-3.7%
$390 Обс.
<1%
3.7-4.0%
$433 Обс.
<1%
4.0-4.3%
$1,074 Обс.
6%
4.3-4.6%
$4,633 Обс.
55%
4.6-4.9%
$7,197 Обс.
34%
4.9-5.2%
$2,166 Обс.
3%
5.2-5.5%
$390 Обс.
1%
5.5%+
$691 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data at 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft consumption and fixed-asset investment, anchors trader expectations for Q3 growth in the 4.3-4.9% range. Official H1 figures showed 4.7% expansion, with resilient manufacturing and exports offsetting domestic weakness tied to the property sector and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds reflect consensus forecasts near 4.5% for the full year, consistent with authorities’ target band and analyst projections from sources such as Reuters and the IMF. Key upcoming catalysts include the late-July Politburo meeting for potential fiscal stimulus signals and the October Q3 release, with any acceleration in retail sales or policy easing likely to influence near-term pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Ринок відкрито: Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ET
Обсяг
$17,613Дата завершення
Oct 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.htmlRecent Q2 2026 GDP data at 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft consumption and fixed-asset investment, anchors trader expectations for Q3 growth in the 4.3-4.9% range. Official H1 figures showed 4.7% expansion, with resilient manufacturing and exports offsetting domestic weakness tied to the property sector and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds reflect consensus forecasts near 4.5% for the full year, consistent with authorities’ target band and analyst projections from sources such as Reuters and the IMF. Key upcoming catalysts include the late-July Politburo meeting for potential fiscal stimulus signals and the October Q3 release, with any acceleration in retail sales or policy easing likely to influence near-term pricing.
This market will resolve according to China's Y/Y Growth Rate (%) of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the "Preliminary Accounting Results of GDP" release for Q3 of 2026, scheduled for October 20, 2026.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
For the full release schedule, see: https://www.stats.gov.cn/english/PressRelease/ReleaseCalendar/202512/t20251226_1962154.html
Обсяг
$17,613Дата завершення
Oct 20, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 16, 2026, 8:06 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Q2 2026 GDP data at 4.3% year-over-year, down from 5.0% in Q1 amid soft consumption and fixed-asset investment, anchors trader expectations for Q3 growth in the 4.3-4.9% range. Official H1 figures showed 4.7% expansion, with resilient manufacturing and exports offsetting domestic weakness tied to the property sector and higher energy costs. Market-implied odds reflect consensus forecasts near 4.5% for the full year, consistent with authorities’ target band and analyst projections from sources such as Reuters and the IMF. Key upcoming catalysts include the late-July Politburo meeting for potential fiscal stimulus signals and the October Q3 release, with any acceleration in retail sales or policy easing likely to influence near-term pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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