China's July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, presented as routine training with a dummy warhead and prior notifications, represents the most recent verified activity and appears to have met immediate demonstration objectives for the People's Liberation Army Navy. No subsequent launches have occurred in the following six weeks amid stable cross-strait dynamics and ongoing U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation without direct provocation. Diplomatic exchanges at the Conference on Disarmament and regional responses have emphasized transparency concerns rather than immediate escalation risks. Traders appear to interpret this pattern, combined with the absence of scheduled high-stakes summits or crises through year-end, as lowering the near-term likelihood of another ballistic missile launch before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
17% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
17% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China's July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, presented as routine training with a dummy warhead and prior notifications, represents the most recent verified activity and appears to have met immediate demonstration objectives for the People's Liberation Army Navy. No subsequent launches have occurred in the following six weeks amid stable cross-strait dynamics and ongoing U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation without direct provocation. Diplomatic exchanges at the Conference on Disarmament and regional responses have emphasized transparency concerns rather than immediate escalation risks. Traders appear to interpret this pattern, combined with the absence of scheduled high-stakes summits or crises through year-end, as lowering the near-term likelihood of another ballistic missile launch before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$7,393Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China's July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, presented as routine training with a dummy warhead and prior notifications, represents the most recent verified activity and appears to have met immediate demonstration objectives for the People's Liberation Army Navy. No subsequent launches have occurred in the following six weeks amid stable cross-strait dynamics and ongoing U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation without direct provocation. Diplomatic exchanges at the Conference on Disarmament and regional responses have emphasized transparency concerns rather than immediate escalation risks. Traders appear to interpret this pattern, combined with the absence of scheduled high-stakes summits or crises through year-end, as lowering the near-term likelihood of another ballistic missile launch before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Обсяг
$7,393Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...China's July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific, presented as routine training with a dummy warhead and prior notifications, represents the most recent verified activity and appears to have met immediate demonstration objectives for the People's Liberation Army Navy. No subsequent launches have occurred in the following six weeks amid stable cross-strait dynamics and ongoing U.S.-Taiwan military cooperation without direct provocation. Diplomatic exchanges at the Conference on Disarmament and regional responses have emphasized transparency concerns rather than immediate escalation risks. Traders appear to interpret this pattern, combined with the absence of scheduled high-stakes summits or crises through year-end, as lowering the near-term likelihood of another ballistic missile launch before December 31.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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