Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a structural edge in California's 45th congressional district, a North Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats after his narrow 2024 victory by roughly 600 votes. Tran maintains a substantial fundraising lead over a fragmented field of five Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he is positioned to advance as the nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the general election contest Lean Democratic, citing the district's modest D+3 partisan lean and the incumbent's established voter base. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,651 Обс.
88%
Republican Party
$6,249 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a structural edge in California's 45th congressional district, a North Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats after his narrow 2024 victory by roughly 600 votes. Tran maintains a substantial fundraising lead over a fragmented field of five Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he is positioned to advance as the nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the general election contest Lean Democratic, citing the district's modest D+3 partisan lean and the incumbent's established voter base. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,899Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a structural edge in California's 45th congressional district, a North Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats after his narrow 2024 victory by roughly 600 votes. Tran maintains a substantial fundraising lead over a fragmented field of five Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he is positioned to advance as the nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the general election contest Lean Democratic, citing the district's modest D+3 partisan lean and the incumbent's established voter base. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat in November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$7,899Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a structural edge in California's 45th congressional district, a North Orange County seat that shifted toward Democrats after his narrow 2024 victory by roughly 600 votes. Tran maintains a substantial fundraising lead over a fragmented field of five Republican primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary, where he is positioned to advance as the nominee. Forecasters including the Cook Political Report rate the general election contest Lean Democratic, citing the district's modest D+3 partisan lean and the incumbent's established voter base. These factors underpin trader consensus assigning the Democratic Party an 87.5 percent implied probability of holding the seat in November.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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