Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 87.5% for the CA-45 House seat, driven by his dominant fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, nearly double his five Republican primary challengers combined—and Cook Political Report's Lean D rating following redistricting that shifted the district leftward to one Kamala Harris would carry by four points. The fragmented GOP field, including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen and others, risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, while Tran's bipartisan wins on affordable housing funding and small business loans bolster his position in this competitive Orange County district with large Vietnamese American and Latino populations. Recent LA Times voter guides highlight these edges amid voter focus on housing costs and homelessness.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-45 House Election Winner
CA-45 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
11%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,642 Обс.
88%
Republican Party
$5,910 Обс.
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 87.5% for the CA-45 House seat, driven by his dominant fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, nearly double his five Republican primary challengers combined—and Cook Political Report's Lean D rating following redistricting that shifted the district leftward to one Kamala Harris would carry by four points. The fragmented GOP field, including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen and others, risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, while Tran's bipartisan wins on affordable housing funding and small business loans bolster his position in this competitive Orange County district with large Vietnamese American and Latino populations. Recent LA Times voter guides highlight these edges amid voter focus on housing costs and homelessness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,552Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 87.5% for the CA-45 House seat, driven by his dominant fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, nearly double his five Republican primary challengers combined—and Cook Political Report's Lean D rating following redistricting that shifted the district leftward to one Kamala Harris would carry by four points. The fragmented GOP field, including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen and others, risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, while Tran's bipartisan wins on affordable housing funding and small business loans bolster his position in this competitive Orange County district with large Vietnamese American and Latino populations. Recent LA Times voter guides highlight these edges amid voter focus on housing costs and homelessness.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$7,552Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran holds a commanding lead in trader consensus at 87.5% for the CA-45 House seat, driven by his dominant fundraising—$3.8 million raised and $2.6 million cash on hand as of late March, nearly double his five Republican primary challengers combined—and Cook Political Report's Lean D rating following redistricting that shifted the district leftward to one Kamala Harris would carry by four points. The fragmented GOP field, including Westminster Mayor Chi Charlie Nguyen and others, risks vote-splitting in the June 2 top-two primary, while Tran's bipartisan wins on affordable housing funding and small business loans bolster his position in this competitive Orange County district with large Vietnamese American and Latino populations. Recent LA Times voter guides highlight these edges amid voter focus on housing costs and homelessness.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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