State Sen. Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her California Democratic Party endorsement and backing from left-leaning groups like Indivisible East Bay, bolstering her name recognition and fundraising in the safely Democratic Alameda County seat vacated by Rep. Eric Swalwell's April resignation amid misconduct allegations. Recent May endorsements from the Mercury News and emerging support among Tri-Valley Democrats have solidified her frontrunner status ahead of the June 16 top-two special primary and August 18 general election. A crowded field of challengers, including Rakhi Israni Singh with early fundraising momentum, keeps odds competitive for second place advancement, reflecting uncertainty in the nonpartisan primary dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-14 Special Election Winner?
Aisha Wahab 90%
Carin Elam 26.9%
Wendy Huang 23.6%
Melissa Hernandez 22.0%
Aisha Wahab
70%
Melissa Hernandez
22%
Wendy Huang
24%
Carin Elam
27%
Matt Ortega
37%
Rakhi Israni Singh
38%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
4%
Aisha Wahab 90%
Carin Elam 26.9%
Wendy Huang 23.6%
Melissa Hernandez 22.0%
Aisha Wahab
70%
Melissa Hernandez
22%
Wendy Huang
24%
Carin Elam
27%
Matt Ortega
37%
Rakhi Israni Singh
38%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
4%
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Ринок відкрито: Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...State Sen. Aisha Wahab leads trader consensus at 69.5% implied probability to win California's 14th Congressional District special election, driven by her California Democratic Party endorsement and backing from left-leaning groups like Indivisible East Bay, bolstering her name recognition and fundraising in the safely Democratic Alameda County seat vacated by Rep. Eric Swalwell's April resignation amid misconduct allegations. Recent May endorsements from the Mercury News and emerging support among Tri-Valley Democrats have solidified her frontrunner status ahead of the June 16 top-two special primary and August 18 general election. A crowded field of challengers, including Rakhi Israni Singh with early fundraising momentum, keeps odds competitive for second place advancement, reflecting uncertainty in the nonpartisan primary dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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