Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 Cook PVI, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic House winner, reflecting his long tenure since 2009, dominant fundraising with over $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of crushing Republican Rudy Recile 74%-26% in 2024. The top-two primary on June 2 features Garamendi against three underfunded challengers, likely advancing two Democrats to November's general election in this Bay Area district where Kamala Harris won 65% in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a primary surprise propelling Recile to the general, Garamendi health issues at age 81, or unforeseen scandals, though structural advantages make a GOP upset improbable absent a national wave.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-08 House Election Winner
CA-08 House Election Winner
$11,941 Обс.
$11,941 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
$11,941 Обс.
$11,941 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$5,673 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$6,269 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 Cook PVI, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic House winner, reflecting his long tenure since 2009, dominant fundraising with over $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of crushing Republican Rudy Recile 74%-26% in 2024. The top-two primary on June 2 features Garamendi against three underfunded challengers, likely advancing two Democrats to November's general election in this Bay Area district where Kamala Harris won 65% in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a primary surprise propelling Recile to the general, Garamendi health issues at age 81, or unforeseen scandals, though structural advantages make a GOP upset improbable absent a national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Обсяг
$11,941Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 Cook PVI, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic House winner, reflecting his long tenure since 2009, dominant fundraising with over $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of crushing Republican Rudy Recile 74%-26% in 2024. The top-two primary on June 2 features Garamendi against three underfunded challengers, likely advancing two Democrats to November's general election in this Bay Area district where Kamala Harris won 65% in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a primary surprise propelling Recile to the general, Garamendi health issues at age 81, or unforeseen scandals, though structural advantages make a GOP upset improbable absent a national wave.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-08 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$11,941Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat John Garamendi's commanding position in California's 8th Congressional District, rated Solid Democratic with a D+19 Cook PVI, drives trader consensus to 92.5% for a Democratic House winner, reflecting his long tenure since 2009, dominant fundraising with over $1.2 million cash on hand as of late March, and history of crushing Republican Rudy Recile 74%-26% in 2024. The top-two primary on June 2 features Garamendi against three underfunded challengers, likely advancing two Democrats to November's general election in this Bay Area district where Kamala Harris won 65% in 2024. Scenarios to upend this include a primary surprise propelling Recile to the general, Garamendi health issues at age 81, or unforeseen scandals, though structural advantages make a GOP upset improbable absent a national wave.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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